Final Declaration of the Supervisory Board meeting of the International Luxembourg Forum. Geneva, December 4-5, 2019
2020: THE CRUCIAL YEAR FOR THE FUTURE OF ARMS CONTROL
Declarationof the Supervisory Board of the International Luxembourg Forum on Preventing Nuclear Catastrophe
Geneva, December 5, 2019
The Supervisory Board of the International Luxembourg Forum cooperates with the Arms Control Association, the Atlantic Council, the Asia-Pacific Leadership Network for Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament, Global Zero, the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, the Nuclear Threat Initiative, the Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs, the RAND Corporation, the Russian International Affairs Council and Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
Understanding that 2020 will be decisive for the nuclear arms control system and consequently for strategic stability, recognizing the efforts of the above mentioned organizations to prevent nuclear catastrophe and having deliberated as a conference on June 4-5 in Rome and as a Supervisory Board on December 4-5 in Geneva, we propose the following Road Map for these most urgent actions:
- 2020 will be the last chance to extend the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) before its expiration in February 2021. We strongly urge the extension of the Treaty and steps toward negotiations of a follow-on agreement.
- With the necessary political will, it is entirely possible to resolve the technical issues and establish a legal definitions essential to the preservation of New START. This Treaty remains crucial if Russia and the United States are to sustain bilateral strategic stability, parity, transparency and predictability. Moreover, its preservation creates the possibility for negotiations on a follow-on agreement to reduce and limit all relevant weapons systems, in order to continue the process of nuclear arms control and the regime of the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons.
- In the present tense political environment, in view of the danger of inadvertent nuclear war due to technical error or political miscalculation, it is all the more necessary to take joint steps to increase time for the decision-making process on the use of nuclear weapons.
- 2020 will mark the 50th anniversary of the entry into force of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and the 25th anniversary of its indefinite extension. At this historical moment for the NPT, it is vital for the United States and the Russian Federation to continue their traditional cooperation on non-proliferation. Among the major challenges to be addressed at the 2020 NPT Renew Conference is the future of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). All states parties to the Treaty should be encouraged to take all necessary measures to preserve the principal elements of the JCPOA.
- The collapse of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty is likely to precipitate a new arms race in medium- and short-range nuclear and conventional missiles in Europe, Asia and other regions of the world. Positive measures taken in 2020 could preserve the objectives of that Treaty and open the way to additional verification measures, consistent with the appeal of the Russian Government of October 2019 to declare a moratorium on deployment of mid-range missiles. European states should actively support such a moratorium.
- Dangerous confrontation and close encounters of Russian and NATO armed forces in the Black Sea, Baltic and Arctic regions and in Syria have been going on for several years and they can erupt into armed conflict at any moment. The year 2020 may present the opportunity to avoid this threat by applying steps of military de-escalation on both sides and to preserve the Open Skies Treaty and the Vienna Document. As one of the steps towards reduction of tensions we urge the parties to refrain from large-scale military maneuvers and build-up of armaments and military forces near the border areas.
- Consistent with the above recommendations, it would be highly desirable for all states, and especially for nuclear weapons possessors, to endorse the principle that “nuclear war cannot be won and should never be fought.”
This would be in line with past proposals of the Luxembourg Forum, to conduct regular summits at senior state level and military-to-military contacts. These urgent steps are essential for resuming progress towards the long-term goal of achieving the nuclear weapons free world.
The participants of the Supervisory Board Meeting of the International Luxemburg Forum:
President of the International Luxembourg Forum on Preventing Nuclear Catastrophe, Ph.D.
Deputy Chairman of the Organizing Committee of the International Luxembourg Forum; Head of the Center for International Security at the Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO), Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS); Academician, RAS (Russia).
Co-Founder of Global Zero International Movement; Senior Research Scholar, Princeton University; Member of the Supervisory Board of the International Luxembourg Forum, Ph.D. (USA).
Vice Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Nuclear Threat Initiative; Founder and a Current Member of the Top Level Group of Parliamentarians for Nuclear Disarmament and Non-Proliferation; Chairman of the Board of Trustees and Directors of the European Leadership Network (former Secretary of State for Defence; Secretary of State for Scotland; Member of Parliament), Lord Browne of Ladyton (Great Britain).
President of the Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs,Member of the Supervisory Board of the International Luxembourg Forum, Ambassador (former United Nations High Representative for Disarmament Affairs) (Brazil).
Chairman of the Organizing Committee of the International Luxembourg Forum; Principal Researcher at the Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO), Russian Academy of Sciences (former Director of the 4th Central Scientific Research Institute, Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation); Professor, Ph.D.; Major General (retired) (Russia).
Ambassador, Member of the Supervisory Board of the International Luxembourg Forum (former High Commissioner on National Minorities at the OSCE, Chairman of the Governing Board, SIPRI) (Sweden).
Marshall D. Shulman Professor Emeritus, Department of Political Science and the Harriman Institute, Columbia University; Ph.D. (USA).
Emeritus Board Member at the Nuclear Threat Initiative (former Member of the French Parliament, French Special Representative for Afghanistan-Pakistan, Minister of State for Europe and Minister of State for Foreign Trade), Ph.D. (France).
Deputy Chairman of the Organizing Committee of theInternational Luxembourg Forum; Head of the Division of the Primakov National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO), Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS); Professor ofMGIMO (University), Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia (former Chief of the Organizational Analytic Division, RAS), Ph.D. (Russia).
Professor at the Stanford University, Member of the Supervisory Board of the International Luxembourg Forum (former US Secretary of Defense), Ph.D. (USA).
Director, James Martin Center for Non-Proliferation Studies; Professor of Non-Proliferation Studies, Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey; Member of the Supervisory Board of the International Luxembourg Forum, Ph.D. (USA).
Distinguished Professor of the Department of Physics at the University of Maryland; Director Emeritus, Space Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS); Member of the Supervisory Board of the International Luxembourg Forum; Academician, RAS (Russia/USA).